QE3: Banks Already Drowning In Liquidity

It's become apparent that the "solution" to the growing complexity of the financial system is more complexity.  The Federal Reserve planning concept of fixing debt by adding more debt, especially as we just crossed $16 trillion in public debt last week. With a new QE round between $200 and $500 billion the world is drowning in liquidity.  In other words, not only is debt the fix to record debt, but liquidity is about to be unleashed on a world that is already drowning in liquidity. 

The bad news: everything being tried now will fail, as it did before, because nothing has changed, except for the scale, meaning the blow up will be all that more spectacular. The good news: at least the Keynesians (or is it simply Socialists now?) out there will not be able to say we should have just added one more [    ]illion in debt/liquidity and all would have worked, just as our textbooks predicted. Because by the time it's over, that too will have happened.

From JPM's Michael Cembalest:

"It has been a strange year. If you were concerned about the global economy this year, you were right:  

• Leading indicators of manufacturing, such as new orders, are weakening just about everywhere
• Chinese, Korean and Taiwanese exports are slowing sharply; China may be growing at only 6%
• European growth is ~0%, with the periphery in recession. Germany business surveys also fading
• Last week’s US jobs report was weak across the board (payrolls, work week, labor force participation and wages)
• US capital spending trends are slowing (e.g., capital goods orders ex-aircraft)
• Countries like Brazil are showing signs of industrial fatigue due to an overly strong currency in 2010-2011
• The US election does not look like it will bring clarity to the US fiscal/debt ceiling divide (polls show Democrats keeping the White House and Republicans keeping the House of Representatives)
• US housing is staging a modest recovery, but it’s not a game-changer given its smaller contribution to employment
• Corporate profits are high, but the trend in EPS revisions is negative and profits growth is slowing

However, global equity markets have done well, up 13% so far in 2012. The bottom line: with the world drowning in liquidity, the right portfolio moves this year have been to take advantage of low equity valuations, look through all the economic weakness and expect that continued monetary stimulus will  eventually bear fruit. We have done some of that but not as much as we might have, and as things stand now, global equity markets have outperformed what I had expected. The world’s Central Banks have made it clear that inflating their way out is preferable to the alternatives, an environment that is conducive to risky assets that are priced very cheaply, until and unless they lose control of inflation."

For those confused, Cembalest only added "unless" out of political courtesy, because as even the Fed itself admitted last night, first via St. Louis Fed's James Bullard and soon everyone else, the Fed has finally been exposed as being nothing but a puppet tool of politicians, who in turn have always been sponsored muppets of Wall Street (Who can possibly forget Chuck Schumer telling Bernanke to "get to work Mr. Chairman"). In other words, we now know politicians run not only fiscal, but monetary policy. How to hedge against this apocalyptic proposition? Simple. Cue Kyle Bass: "Buying gold is just buying a put against the idiocy of the political cycle. It's That Simple."

It really is.

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